Public officials and candidates for public office routinely use public opinion polls to keep track of what the people are thinking. An important question is the degree to which these polls should guide leaders in their actions. There are arguments for and against the use of polls as the basis for policy decisions. Polls can contribute to effective government by keeping political leaders from getting too far out of line with the public's thinking. In a democratic society, the effectiveness of a public policy often depends on the extent of its public support. When a policy is contrary to the public's desires, people may choose to disregard or undermine it, thus making it counterproductive or inefficient. Further, when government pursues a course of action with which a large proportion of the public disagrees, it risks a loss of public confidence, which can have a negative effect on its ability to lead. The Reagan administration, flying high from 1981 to 1985, was brought low in 1986 by public reaction to news of its secret sales of weapons to Iran. The administration had not paid sufficient attention to polls that revealed the deep antagonism Americans still felt toward Iran because the Ayatollah Khomeini's regime had held sixty three American hostages(人质)in 1979. However, leaders can also do a disservice to the public they represent by using poll results as a substitute for policy judgment. " Effective government" , as Walter Lippmann wrote, " cannot be conducted by legislators and officials who, when a question is presented, ask themselves first and last not what is the truth and which is the right and necessary course, but what does the Gallup Poll say?" During his presidential term, Jimmy Carter proposed five consecutive inflation fighting programs , changing his plans with each shift in public sentiment without having invested the political capital necessary to get Congress and the country behind any of the efforts. The nation and Carter would probably have been better served by a steadfast commitment to a single course of action.

38． The main idea of the second paragraph is that______.