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Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply - cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $ 26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near - tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979 -80, when they also almost tri- pled. Both previous shocks resulted in double - digit inflation and global economic decline. So there are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil experts. Strengthening economic growth, al the' same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short Item.

Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, tuxes account for up to four - fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the 'oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, oil prices averaged $ 22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25 - 0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and se could he more seriously squeezed.

One more reason net to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

36. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is______.

Part B

52.Directions:

A) Title: Parents are too Permissive with Their Children Nowadays

B) Your composition should be based on the Outline given in Chinese below:

1.孩子成为家庭的中心，父母日渐失去应有的权威。

2.父母对孩子的溺爱和忽视导致表少年犯罪。

3.孩子的生活过于安逸对他们日后的成长不利。

You should write about 160-200 words neatly on ANSWER SHEET H. (20 points)

Part A

51.Directions:

Your friend Steven and Jenny have just had a new baby boy. Please write a letter to congratulate them. You should write about 100 words on ANSWER SHEET II. Do not sign your own name at the end of the letter. You do not need to write the address. ( 10 points )

50.____________

48.____________

49.____________

47.____________

43.____________

Part C

Directions: Read the following text carefully and then translate the underlined segments into Chinese. Your translation should be written clearly on ANSWER SHEET II. (10 points)

According to the new school of scientists, technology is an overlooked force in expanding the horizons of scientific knowledge. 46)Science moves forward, they say, not so much through the insights of great men of genius as because of more ordinary things like improved techniques and tools. 47) "In short" pa leader of the new school contend% "the scien tific revolution, as we call it, was largely the improvement and invention and use of a series of instruments that expanded the reach of science in innumerable directions".

48)Over the year% tools and technology themselves as a source of fundamental innovation have largely been ignored by historians and philosophers of science. The modern school that hails technology argues that such masters as Galileo, Newton, Maxwell, Einstein, and inventors such as Edison attached great importance to, and derived great benefit from, craft information and technological devices of different kinds that were usable in scientific experiments.

The centerpiece of the argument of a technology-yes, genius-no advocate was an analysis of Galileo's role at the start of the scientific revolution. The wisdom of the day was derived from Ptolemy, an astronomer of the second century, whose elaborate system of the sky put Earth at the center of all heavenly motions. 49)Galileo's greatest glory was that in 1609 he was the first person to turn the newly invented telescope on the heavens to prove that the planets revolve mound the sun rather than around the Earth. But the real hero of the story, according to the new school of scientists, was the long evolution in the improvement of machinery for making eyeglasses.

Federal policy is necessarily involved in the technology vs. genius dispute. 50)Whether the Government should in- crease the financing of pure science at the expense of technology or vice versa(反之) often depends on the issue of which is seen as the driving force.

46.____________

Part B

Directions: In the following article, some sentences ]tare been removed. For Questions 41-45, choose the most suitable one from the list A—G to fit into each of the numbered blank, There are two extra choices, which do not fit in any of the gaps. Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET I. ( 10 points)

On the ground floor of a five story building in Rome, Italy, a lead aproned man carefully places a 400-year-o. ld painting on a table. Then he steps back and flips the switch of a 50,000-volt X-ray machine. Nearby, another painting is being wheeled into a special oven. Elsewhere the buzz of a power saw is heard from behind a closed door. Two workers are cutting the back off a 500-year-old wood panel painting.

Such things happen every day at Rome' s Institute of Restoration. 41)____________In terms of an treasures, Italy is one of the richest countries in the world. Yet until 1939, when Italy' s government founded the Institute, the country" s museums had to hire private restorers for cleaning and repair jobs. Says Doctor Urbani, "Most of the restorers did not have proper training. They often did more harm than good."

No wonder they did harm. 42)____________.

43)____________. Sometimes they even changed the picture.

40. From the text we can see that the writer seems______.